
The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has revised the country's GDP growth forecast for 2017, slowing down from 3.9-4.8% to 4.4-4.9%. Medium-term forecasts for 2018 were also revised - 3.5-4.6%, instead of the previous 2.8-4.2%, 3.5-4.9% for the 2019, instead of the previous 3.2-4.8%, and 3.8-5.4% for 2020. This is reflected in the updated CBA program of the Central Bank of Armenia, which clarifies that in 2017 such economic growth will be mainly due to growth of private consumption growth by 7.4% (previous 4,8%) and 6% increase in private investment (unchanged) :
The Central Bank expects growth in the agricultural and construction spheres in 2017 at more modest rates than previously mentioned, in particular, the growth in the agricultural sector will be 1.6-2.4%, and the construction industry will be 1.5-2, 4% decline. In terms of services, the CB expects growth rates to accelerate to 4.2-4.6% previously predicted for 2017, noting that positive trends in tourism will continue in 2018. There are no forecasts for industrial growth rates, but for 2017 they were 7.8-8.6%.
In terms of exports and imports in 2017, the Central Bank maintained the previous forecast - an increase of 10-12% (earlier export growth was projected at 3-5% and imports - 4-6%). The CB reconsidered the forecast of growth of 2017 for individuals' remittances, from previous 12 to 14% to 14-16%, conditioned by the expectations of the restoration of the Russian economy. The unemployment forecast for the Central Bank in 2017 has remained at 17.9% (earlier 17.7%), with further down by 0.3-0.5 percentage points.
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